Posts Tagged bias
As someone looking for a virtuous girl, I have been working under the assumption that Church is a relatively good place to meet girls. After all, girls that go to church are likely to be (or want to be) of a virtuous nature. But I must admit to at least one flaw with this strategy, which was brought to my attention by Daniel Kahneman’s excellent book “Thinking, fast and slow.” First impressions last.
Has your intuition ever failed you? Mine sometimes has (and I call myself a mathematician). In this post from my blog J delta rho I relate one such case and what it means for traders.
I am ashamed to say that my statistical intuition has failed me. I was doing some brainteasers and came across this one here :
In a country in which people only want boys every family continues to have children until they have a boy. If they have a girl, they have another child. If they have a boy, they stop. What is the proportion of boys to girls in the country?
read more here.
The more research I do (and I have not done much) the less I trust other research, and the less I trust my own. When you read a paper in finance you will invariably find significant results that support the author’s conclusions. When I run regressions, my results are weak, sometimes contradicting my hypothesis sometimes confirming it.
Read more of this post on my other blog, J delta rho, here….